Forecasting ward-level bed requirements to aid pandemic resource planning: Lessons learned and future directions.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been considerable research on how regional and country-level forecasting can be used to anticipate required hospital resources. We add to and build on this work by focusing on ward-level forecasting and planning tools for hospital staff during the pandemic. We present an assessment, validation, and deployment of a working prototype forecasting tool used within a modified Traffic Control Bundling (TCB) protocol for resource planning during the pandemic. We compare statistical and machine learning forecasting methods and their accuracy at one of the largest hospitals (Vancouver General Hospital) in Canada against a medium-sized hospital (St. Paul's Hospital) in Vancouver, Canada through the first three waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the province of British Columbia. Our results confirm that traditional statistical and machine learning (ML) forecasting methods can provide valuable ward-level forecasting to aid in decision-making for pandemic resource planning. Using point forecasts with upper 95% prediction intervals, such forecasting methods would have provided better accuracy in anticipating required beds on COVID-19 hospital units than ward-level capacity decisions made by hospital staff. We have integrated our methodology into a publicly available online tool that operationalizes ward-level forecasting to aid with capacity planning decisions. Importantly, hospital staff can use this tool to translate forecasts into better patient care, less burnout, and improved planning for all hospital resources during pandemics.

Adaptation of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Protocols to a Parisian Maternity Unit During the 2020 Pandemic: A Managerial Perspective.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic overwhelmed health services in France during March 2020 and, to cope, service delivery was reduced in most disciplines. However, as this was impossible for Obstetrics, the COVID-19 infection had to be added to existing clinical care pathways at the children's hospital, Hôpital Necker-Enfants Malades. This was further complicated by an increasing number of pregnancies affected by infection, in addition to scientific uncertainty about the virus. Procedures based on scientific recommendations from French and international authorities were adapted to maternity care and regularly updated as the situation progressed. Weekly medical manager team meetings covered the evolving clinical situation, and an initial evaluation revealed that our procedures worked well. However, it was necessary to adapt the policy as the epidemic progressed rapidly. Shortly after March 16, traffic control bundling was implemented in anticipation of a dramatic increase in pregnant women affected by infection and to better protect the staff. By April 18, with the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic receding, protocols were again readjusted to meet new service delivery requirements. Although a full debrief is yet to occur, from an operational level perspective, staff response was more than satisfactory. While preventing another epidemic may be impossible, this experience will improve our resilience in the future.

Containing SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals facing finite PPE, limited testing, and physical space variability: Navigating resource constrained enhanced traffic control bundling.

The COVID-19 outbreak has led to a focus by public health practitioners and scholars on ways to limit spread while facing unprecedented challenges and resource constraints. Recent COVID-19-specific enhanced Traffic Control Bundling (eTCB) recommendations provide a cogent framework for managing patient care pathways and reducing health care worker (HCW) and patient exposure to SARS-CoV-2. eTCB has been applied broadly and has proven to be effective in limiting fomite and droplet transmissions in hospitals and between hospitals and the surrounding community. At the same time, resource constrained conditions involving limited personal protective equipment (PPE), low testing availability, and variability in physical space can require modifications in the way hospitals implement eTCB. While eTCB has come to be viewed as a standard of practice, COVID-19 related resource constraints often require hospital implementation teams to customize eTCB solutions. We provide and describe a cross-functional, collaborative on-the-ground adaptive application of eTCB initially piloted at two hospitals and subsequently reproduced at 16 additional hospitals and health systems in the US to date. By effectively facilitating eTCB deployment, hospital leaders and practitioners can establish clearer 'zones of risk' and related protective practices that prevent transmission to HCWs and patients. We outline key insights and recommendations gained from recent implementation under the aforementioned constraints and a cross-functional team process that can be utilized by hospitals to most effectively adapt eTCB under resource constraints.

Learning from the first wave: Lessons about managing patient flow and resource utilization on medical wards at providence health during the COVID-19 pandemic.

We report the successful implementation of a modified Traffic Control Bundling (TCB) protocol called "Red, Yellow and Green" on the inpatient medical units at St. Paul's Hospital in Vancouver, Canada during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The modified TCB protocol demonstrates an important example on how hospitals can rapidly reorganize operational and clinical processes to reallocate existing capacity to minimize exposure, improve traffic flow and reduce nosocomial transmissions of COVID-19 to health care workers (HCWs) and other patients. Preliminary evidence demonstrates the benefits on how an existing facility can be redesigned for adjustable ward capacity to provide disease containment under a context of uncertainty of disease transmission and varying patient load. Important lessons in preparation for the evolution of the pandemic fall into categories of risk management, capacity and demand management.

Protecting Healthcare Workers During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak: Lessons From Taiwan's Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Response.

During major epidemic outbreaks, demand for healthcare workers (HCWs) grows even as the extreme pressures they face cause declining availability. We draw on Taiwan's severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) experience to argue that a modified form of traffic control bundling (TCB) protects HCW safety and by extension strengthens overall coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic control.

Recommendations for protecting against and mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in long-term care facilities.

The COVID-19 outbreak has drawn heightened attention from public health scholars researching ways to limit its spread. Much of the research has been focused on minimizing transmission in hospitals and in the general community. However, a particularly vulnerable community that has received relatively little attention is elders residing in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). In this article we address this relative lack of attention, arguing that enhanced traffic control bundling (eTCB) can and should be adopted and implemented as a means of protecting LTCF residents and staff. Enhanced TCB has been widely applied in hospital settings and has proven effective at limiting droplet and fomite transmissions both within hospitals and between hospitals and the general community. By effectively adapting eTCB to LTCF conditions, particularly by incorporating compartmentalization within zones plus active surveillance, COVID-19 transmission into and throughout LTCFs can be minimized, thereby saving numerous lives among an especially vulnerable population.

Interrupting COVID-19 transmission by implementing enhanced traffic control bundling: Implications for global prevention and control efforts.

We argue that enhanced Traffic Control Bundling (eTCB) can interrupt the community-hospital-community transmission cycle, thereby limiting COVID-19's impact. Enhanced TCB is an expansion of the traditional TCB that proved highly effective during Taiwan's 2003 SARS outbreak. TCB's success derived from ensuring that Health Care Workers (HCWs) and patients were protected from fomite, contact and droplet transmission within hospitals. Although TCB proved successful during SARS, achieving a similar level of success with the COVID-19 outbreak requires adapting TCB to the unique manifestations of this new disease. These manifestations include asymptomatic infection, a hyper-affinity to ACE2 receptors resulting in high transmissibility, false negatives, and an incubation period of up to 22 days. Enhanced TCB incorporates the necessary adaptations. In particular, eTCB includes expanding the TCB transition zone to incorporate a new sector - the quarantine ward. This ward houses patients exhibiting atypical manifestations or awaiting definitive diagnosis. A second adaptation involves enhancing the checkpoint hand disinfection and gowning up with Personal Protective Equipment deployed in traditional TCB. Under eTCB, checkpoint hand disinfection and donning of face masks are now required of all visitors who seek to enter hospitals. These enhancements ensure that transmissions by droplets, fomites and contact are disrupted both within hospitals and between hospitals and the broader community. Evidencing eTCB effectiveness is Taiwan's success to date in containing and controlling the community-hospital-community transmission cycle.

Adaptation of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Protocols to a Parisian Maternity Unit During the 2020 Pandemic: A Managerial Perspective.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic overwhelmed health services in France during March 2020 and, to cope, service delivery was reduced in most disciplines. However, as this was impossible for Obstetrics, the COVID-19 infection had to be added to existing clinical care pathways at the children's hospital, Hôpital Necker-Enfants Malades. This was further complicated by an increasing number of pregnancies affected by infection, in addition to scientific uncertainty about the virus. Procedures based on scientific recommendations from French and international authorities were adapted to maternity care and regularly updated as the situation progressed. Weekly medical manager team meetings covered the evolving clinical situation, and an initial evaluation revealed that our procedures worked well. However, it was necessary to adapt the policy as the epidemic progressed rapidly. Shortly after March 16, traffic control bundling was implemented in anticipation of a dramatic increase in pregnant women affected by infection and to better protect the staff. By April 18, with the peak of the COVID-19 epidemic receding, protocols were again readjusted to meet new service delivery requirements. Although a full debrief is yet to occur, from an operational level perspective, staff response was more than satisfactory. While preventing another epidemic may be impossible, this experience will improve our resilience in the future.